The New Deciders: 

How NPAs and Minor Parties are Reshaping Florida's Electorate 

 

By Dr. Susan A. MacManus, USF Distinguished University Professor Emerita

Amy N. Benner, Ph.D. Candidate, Rutgers University-New Brunswick

David J. Bonanza, Research Associate

Anthony A. Cilluffo, Research Associate 

 

April 6, 2026

 

 

“Independent” voters have caught the attention of both candidates and the two major parties this election cycle. The share of voters turning their backs on Democrats and Republicans is on the rise across the U.S. Here we focus on the growing political clout of Florida registered voters choosing not to register as a Democrat or Republican--who they are, where they live, and why they have grabbed the attention of both major political parties.

FLORIDA VOTER REGISTRATION TRENDS

In Florida, voters can register as a Democrat, Republican, No Party Affiliation (NPA), or a member of one of 15 minor parties. The state has experienced significant shifts in party registration in recent years: Republicans have steadily expanded their share of registered voters, while Democratic registration has declined. Although NPAs continue to make up a substantial proportion of the electorate, the most pronounced growth has occurred among minor party registrants. 

As of February 2026, NPAs and minor party voters together account for 28% of Florida’s electorate. This share is just two percentage points lower than Democrats (30%), and remains well behind Republicans, who maintain the largest share of registered voters at 41%. (See Figures 1 and 2.) 

More recently, this growing bloc of voters has drawn widespread attention following two closely contested March special elections to fill vacant state legislative seats. In low-turnout races often decided by narrow margins, even small shifts among these voters can prove decisive. As a result, this expanding and increasingly consequential group has the potential to shape upcoming elections. 

Figure 1. Florida Party Registration Trend: 1972-2026 

Note: Data compiled from the Florida Division of Elections. Includes active registered voters and is current as of the end of February 2026. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Figure 2. Republicans Outnumber Democrats by about 1.5 Million Voters

Note: Data compiled from the Florida Division of Elections. Includes active registered voters and is current as of the end of February 2026. Shares for NPA plus minor party registrants add to greater than 28% (Figure 1) due to rounding.

MAJOR QUESTIONS AHEAD OF 2026

This deep-driving analysis aims to answer big questions about this growing pool of voters: 

What are their motivations? Why do some voters reject party labels and opt out of registering with either major party?

Who are they? Are they a cohesive group, or divided generationally, racially and ethnically, or by gender? 

Where are they located? Are they dispersed across the state or concentrated in specific geographical areas? 

What might their growing presence mean for the upcoming elections? Do they turn out to vote? 

WHY REGISTER AS NPA OR WITH A MINOR PARTY

There are several reasons why voters may choose not to register as Republicans or Democrats. These include: 

     A dissatisfaction with, distrust of, or dislike for one or both major political parties, or even the two-party system more broadly.

     Single-issue voters who feel neither major party represents their top issue priority.

     Preference for an independent label, particularly when professional contexts require political neutrality or the appearance of objectivity. 

     Individuals with cross-pressured identities or conflicting views that influence political preferences (e.g., support for progressive social policies alongside fiscally conservative economic policies).

     Voters with low levels of political knowledge or engagement may lack a clear understanding of what each party represents but still feel an obligation to participate in the political process. 

The marked differences for voters choosing to go NPA pose a big challenge to the two major parties trying to win their support in the upcoming 2026 midterms. 

A CLOSE LOOK AT FLORIDA’S NPA VOTERS

Because neither Republicans nor Democrats hold a majority of voters in Florida, both parties must effectively appeal to, target, and mobilize NPAs to succeed on Election Day. That makes it especially important to understand who these voters are and where they are located across the state. 

Generation

Contrary to conventional wisdom, seniors are not the largest segment of Florida’s electorate. The three youngest generations (Generation X, Millennials, and Generation Z) make up 60% of all registered voters (see Table 1). 

Table 1. Florida Voter Registration by Generation 

Note: Data compiled from the Florida Division of Elections. Includes active registered voters and is current as of the end of January 2026. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Among Florida’s NPA voters, the two youngest generations (Gen Z and Millennials) make up 45% of all NPAs, the three youngest 70%. The fact that 25% of Baby Boomers are NPAs, along with 5% of those from Silent, clearly indicates that some voters of all ages are turning away from the major parties. 

Race and Ethnicity

NPA voters are also racially and ethnically diverse, and in many respects, more diverse than Florida’s overall electorate (see Table 2). 

Table 2. Florida Voter Registration by Race/Ethnicity and Gender

Note: Data compiled from the Florida Division of Elections. Includes active registered voters and is current as of the end of January 2026. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding. *Other race/ethnicity represents individuals who identify as bi-racial or multi-racial. 

Specifically, among NPA registrants:

     White voters make up a smaller share of unaffiliated registrants compared to the overall electorate.

     Hispanic, Asian, and voters identifying as “Other” race/ethnicity are more heavily represented among NPAs.

     Black voters account for a similar share of both groups.

Gender

Interestingly, no significant gender gap exists among Florida’s NPA voters. Women only slightly outnumber men (50% to 47%, respectively). Across generations, gender gaps are also modest, with the only notable gap occurring among the Silent Generation (31-point gap). However, gender differences become more pronounced within certain racial and ethnic groups: women outnumber men among Asian NPA voters (8-point gap) and Hispanic NPAs voters (10-point gap). 

Geographic Location

Understanding where NPA voters reside across the state is just as important as knowing who they are, particularly given its implications for local elections, state legislative races, and congressional contests. In Florida, 68% of all NPA voters are concentrated in urban areas that encompass the state’s three largest media markets—Tampa, Orlando, and Miami (see Figure 3). Overall, 64% of all registered voters live in these markets. 

Figure 3. Florida NPA Voter Registration by Media Market

Note: Data compiled from the Florida Division of Elections. Includes active registered voters and is current as of the end of January 2026. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

More specifically, the highest concentrations of NPAs voters are clustered in Southeast Florida, particularly in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties, and in counties along the I-4 corridor (Orange and Hillsborough). Miami-Dade County has the largest number of NPA voters in the state, with nearly 400,000 registrants, accounting for just over 30% of its registered voters. Broward and Orange counties follow, both of which have more registered NPAs than Republicans. 

Collectively, these demographic patterns show that Florida’s NPA voters are far from a monolithic group. They span generations, racial and ethnic backgrounds, and geographic regions of the state. Meanwhile, NPAs represent only one part of the broader shift of Florida’s electorate, as a growing bloc of voters are choosing to register with minor parties: an often-overlooked trend that is also reshaping Florida’s political landscape. 

BREAKING DOWN FLORIDA’S MINOR PARTY ELECTORATE

As of February 2026, Florida had 15 minor parties active in the state, more than half of which were established after the 2022 midterm elections. Notably, several of these parties hold right-leaning ideologies and appear to have emerged, at least in part, from dissatisfaction with the positions and conduct of the contemporary Republican party. 

According to the Florida Division of Elections, nearly half a million voters are currently registered with a minor party—an electorate that has nearly doubled in size since the 2022 election cycle (see Table 3). The Florida Division of Elections link to each of the 15 parties is reported at the end of this column.

 

Table 3. Voter Registration by Party Affiliation (2017-Current)

 

Note: Data compiled from the Florida Division of Elections. Includes active registered voters and is current as of the end of February 2026. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Notably, roughly two-thirds of minor party registrants (66.2%) identify with the Independent Party of Florida (see Table 4), whose platform seeks to attract voters who view the two major parties as too polarized to effectively address the needs of everyday citizens. However, it is likely that many of these registrants believed they were selecting an independent or nonpartisan label rather than formally joining this specific party. 

Table 4. Minor Parties in Florida

Note: Data compiled from the Florida Division of Elections. Includes active registered voters and is current as of the end of January 2026. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding. For additional information on minor parties, see the links provided at end of this analysis.

The second largest minor party in the state is the Conservative Party of Florida, which formed shortly after the 2022 midterms. It is closely followed by the Libertarian Party of Florida, the oldest active minor party in the state. Excluding the Independent Party of Florida, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of all minor party registrants, these two groups together comprise nearly half of the remaining minor party voters (see Figure 4). 

Figure 4. Minor Party Registrants, Excluding the Independent Party of Florida

Note: Data compiled from the Florida Division of Elections. Includes active registered voters and is current as of the end of January 2026. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS ACROSS AND WITHIN MINOR PARTIES

The demographic composition of Florida’s multiple minor parties differs considerably from NPA voters. 

Generations

Across all Florida’s minor parties, Millennials and Generation Z make up more than half (51%) of all registrants. (For comparison, these groups also account for 45% of NPA voters). There are several minor parties that have even higher concentrations of the two youngest generations: 89% of registrants in the Party of Socialism and Liberation – Florida (PSL), 70% of the Boricua Party (BPP), 69% in the Green Party of Florida (GRE), and 67% of the American Solidarity Party of Florida (ASP). Across all minor parties, registration is even more heavily concentrated among younger voters than among NPAs. 

Race and Ethnicity

Overall, minor party registrants are majority White (62%), followed by Hispanic voters (18%), Black voters (12%), voters identifying as Other race/ethnicity (5%), and Asian voters (2%). However, a closer look at the racial/ethnic composition within each minor party reveals more nuanced differences. 

Aside from the Boricua Party (86% Hispanic voters), most minor parties are majority White voters. Hispanic voters also account for more than a quarter of registrants in the American Solidarity Party (ASP) and Ecology Party of Florida (ECO). Among Asian voters, registration in minor parties is relatively low, ranging between almost 0 to 5%. 

Notably, Black voters make up nearly a quarter of registrants in the Coalition with a Purpose Party (CPP) and the American Solidarity Party (ASP), and around one-fifth in others, including the Constitution Party of Florida (CPF), America First Party (AMF), the Florida Forward Party (FFP), and the MGTOW Party of Florida (MGT). Across all minor parties, Black men outnumber Black women. This pattern is consistent with broader national trends indicating a modest but notable shift among some Black men away from the Democratic party. 

Gender

Although pronounced gender gaps are not evident among Florida’s NPA voters, a different pattern emerges across the state’s minor parties. In particular, women outnumber men in overall minor party registration, 52% to 47% respectively (5-point gap). However, in several minor parties, men outnumber women among registered members, and by a significant margin (see Table 5). In minor parties where women do outnumber men, the gender gaps tend to be smaller in size. 

Table 5. Sizable Gender Gaps in Minor Parties: Men Outnumber Women

Note: The gender gap represents the difference in the proportions of men and women registered within each political party. Data compiled from the Florida Division of Elections. Includes active registered voters and is current as of the end of January 2026. *The Jeffersonian Party of Florida, MGTOW Party (“Men Going Their Own Way”), and Reform Party have exceptionally small registration sizes relative to other minor parties. 

Geographic Location

Larger shares of minor party registrants are also concentrated along the I-4 Corridor, which includes the Tampa and Orlando media markets. For several minor parties, half or more of all registrants statewide reside in this region. These parties include the following: 

American Solidarity Party of Florida (ASP)

Boricua Party (BPP)

Coalition with a Purpose Party (CPP)

Conservative Party of Florida (CSV)

Florida Forward Party (FFP)

Green Party of Florida (GRE)

Libertarian Party of Florida (LPF)

Party of Socialism and Liberation – Florida (PSL)

 

This pattern is particularly crucial given the I-4 Corridor’s role as one of the most competitive and politically important regions across the state. 

 

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE 2026 MIDTERMS

Because Florida has a closed primary system, NPAs and minor party registrants cannot participate in the Democratic or Republican primary elections. As a result, this sizeable bloc of voters is excluded from the major parties’ candidate selection process, shifting their influence to the general election. While Republicans hold a significant voter registration edge in the state, both the GOP—and especially Democrats—will need to target, persuade, and mobilize NPA and minor party voters to remain competitive, particularly in down-ballot races. 

To do this effectively, both parties must recognize that these voters are not a monolithic group but instead reflect a wide range of motivations and political orientations. As such, they should not be expected to behave as a cohesive voting bloc. Saying you are targeting “independents” is in many locations is easier said than done!

Importantly, generational differences between these two groups highlight a key distinction: NPA voters are a bit more evenly distributed across generations, while a higher proportion of minor party registrants are the two youngest generations (Gen Z and Millennials). This generational divide will be especially relevant as campaigns seek to engage and mobilize different segments of voters in the general election. 

The size and distribution of NPA and minor party voters become even more important when considered geographically. Collectively, these groups have the potential to shape electoral outcomes in key regions across Florida. Currently, there are 16 counties in which active NPA voters outnumber one of the two major parties: 3 counties where NPAs outnumber Republicans and 13 where they outnumber Democrats (see Figure 5). 

Figure 5: Counties Where Active NPA Voters Outnumber One of the Major Parties

Note: Data compiled from the Florida Division of Elections. Includes active registered voters and is current as of the end of January 2026. 

But when minor party voters are included alongside NPAs, this number expands considerably (see Figure 6). Overall, nearly half of Florida’s counties (29 of 67 counties) have more NPAs and minor party voters than at least one of the two major parties. In 26 counties, NPA and minor party registrants exceeds Democratic registration, while in only 3 counties do they exceed Republican registration. 

 Figure 6. Counties Where Active NPA and Minor Party Voters Combined Outnumber One of the Major Parties

Note: Data compiled from the Florida Division of Elections. Includes active registered voters and is current as of the end of January 2026. 

All together, these groups are also strategically located. NPAs and minor party voters are concentrated in regions that contain competitive or historically swing districts, particularly in the Tampa, Orlando, and Miami media markets. As a result, even small shifts in turnout or voter preference within these groups could influence outcomes in closely contested races. In particular, these areas have higher concentrations of Hispanic voters, a diverse bloc that many are predicting to be swing voters in the upcoming midterms.

IT ALL COMES DOWN TO TURNOUT

While the size and location of these groups matter, their ultimate influence depends on whether they show up on Election Day. A voter registration advantage alone does not guarantee electoral success: it is turnout that decides election outcomes. Recent election data reinforce this point (see Figure 7). Turnout patterns from 2022 and 2024 demonstrate:

- Republicans outperformed Democrats in both elections.

- Consistent with historical patterns, turnout was lower in the midterm election compared to the presidential election across all voters, regardless of affiliation. 

- NPA and minor party registrants voted at lower rates than Democrats and Republicans. 

Figure 7. Florida Voter Turnout by Party: 2022 and 2024 General Elections

Note: Data compiled from the Florida Division of Elections.

As a highly diverse, high-growth state with a shifting demographic composition, Florida presents unique challenges for using prior turnout rates as reliable guides for election predictions. However, because 2026 is a midterm election, 2022 provides the most relevant benchmark. In that cycle, NPA voters had a relatively low turnout rate of just 38%. By comparison, turnout among several minor parties was higher, including the Conservative Party of Florida (CSV) (53%), the Independent Party of Florida (IND) (47%), and the Libertarian Party of Florida (LPF) (46%), all of which have a sizable registration base among the minor parties. 

CONCLUSION:

DON’T IGNORE NPA AND MINOR PARTY REGISTRANTS IN 2026

 

Florida Democrats dream of turning the state blue in 2026. Republicans are confident they can keep it bright red. The wild card, however, is the growing number of NPAs and minor party registrants who, for a variety of reasons, are distrustful of or discontented with the two major parties. But can they be drawn to one party or the other or will they simply not vote at all? Their diversity (generational, racial and ethnic, geographical, and to a lesser degree, gender) makes projections difficult but ignoring them is not wise.

 

In a state where some races can be decided by the narrowest margins, the ability to effectively target, persuade, and mobilize these voters may prove decisive. For both candidates and the two major parties, success in 2026 may hinge on these voters. 

Micro-targeting is essential and its effectiveness is contingent on identifying the right issue, crafting the right message, utilizing the right means of communication, and being delivered by a candidate perceived by the voter as authentic. The biggest challenge in reaching and mobilizing these “mavericks” is that one size does not fit all.

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Links to Minor Parties Information on Florida Division of Election Website: