Unpacking Florida 2026:

Will This Midterm be "Politics as Usual?"

By Dr. Susan A. MacManus, USF Distinguished University Professor Emerita

Amy N. Benner, Ph.D. Candidate, Rutgers University-New Brunswick

David J. Bonanza, Research Associate

Anthony A. Cilluffo, Research Associate  

Typically, turnout in midterm elections across the country is lower than in presidential election years. State and local offices are the primary focus, and incumbents usually do well. Will Florida’s midterm election year 2026 be “politics as usual” or one in which the world of politics is turned upside down? Will our state receive as much national attention as it did prior to COVID when Florida was the nation’s largest swing state?

One thing is for sure: our constantly changing population make-up, along with dramatic shifts in campaign-related techniques and technologies, are making 2026 more challenging for Florida’s voters, parties, and candidates. The three Ms’—Microtargeting, effective Messaging, and the right Means of Communication—are critical at a time when high levels of voter fatigue and distrust permeate the electorate. Many questions remain unanswered as we head into the 2026 election cycle.

LOTS TO WATCH: FLORIDA IS COMPLEX

Voter Registration and Turnout

 Since October 2021, Florida Republicans have expanded their registration advantage over Democrats. At the same time, the gap between Democrats and minor party registrants and those with no party affiliation (NPA) is only two percentage points, reflecting the growing share of Floridians who are not aligned with either major party. Republicans have also outperformed Democrats in turnout in recent election cycles and have held a trifecta (Governor, Florida Senate and House) in the state for more than 20 years. More recently (2022), Republicans held all statewide offices (Governor, Cabinet, U.S. Senators) for the first time since post-Civil War Reconstruction. Collectively, the GOP enters the 2026 midterms with a significant electoral advantage.

Figure 1. Florida Party Registration Trend: 1972-2026

Note: Graphic created by MacManus; calculated from Florida Divisions of Elections as of January 2026.

Key Questions

• Can Florida Democrats halt or slow Republican gains in voter registration? If so, how?
• Will Republicans continue to expand their registration advantage across Florida’s electorate?
• How many registrants will switch from one major party to the other? How many will abandon the two major parties and opt for No Party Affiliation (NPA) or one of Florida’s 15 minor parties?
• Are there specific candidates, contests, or issues that could boost Democratic turnout relative to recent midterm cycles?
• Will working class and low propensity (infrequent) voters who backed Trump in 2024 turn out when he is not on the ballot?
• Are NPA voters persuadable or are they really “leaners” (closet partisans)?
• Which major party is better positioned to appeal to and mobilize NPA voters in the general election?
• Which major party, if either, has the strongest appeal among minor party registrants?

Major Parties and Their Primaries

For both major parties, primary contests are expected to be highly competitive and contentious. Term limits and voluntary departures have resulted in some open-seat races statewide and in congressional and state legislative districts, presenting strategic opportunities for new candidates to enter the political arena. As a result, the 2026 primary elections are likely to play a key role in shaping Florida’s broader electoral landscape with significant implications that extend beyond the state.

Key Questions

• Can Democrats recruit, field, and fund competitive candidates up and down the ballot?
• Will a competitive Democratic primary engage and mobilize their voters ahead of the general election?
• Will endorsements from Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis carry greater weight among Republican primary voters?
• How could competitive Republican primaries affect the party’s ability to unite ahead of the general election?
• Are there notable intra-party divisions or schisms that may persist through the midterms?
• Are there any other high-profile or down-ballot races likely to attract competitive candidates?

Major Issues

The economy was the most important issue for Florida’s voters in the last election cycle, and recent polling continues to identify it as a top concern. While the inflation rate has remained relatively stable the past year, the rising cost of everyday expenses (prices) remains a persistent source of concern among voters. At the same time, rising tensions between local and state governments are likely to be at the forefront of the midterms, particularly around issues like property tax reform, growth, and the environment. Finally, national and international conflicts may also shape attitudes among specific voter groups, adding another layer of complexity to Florida’s electoral landscape.

Key Questions:

• Will affordability and cost of living remain the top issue for Florida voters in the midterms?
• To what extent will health care emerge as a top issue for Florida voters, particularly amid debates over changes to Affordable Care Act subsidies?
• How will voters respond to property tax relief proposals, including potential reductions or altogether elimination? What are the major dividing lines between supporters and opponents?  
• How much population growth is too much and how salient is growth management to voters across different regions of the state?
• How intertwined are growth and voter perceptions of their quality of life? And how much is voter opposition to more growth driven by potential changes to current land use?
• To what extent will national and international issues influence Florida’s midterm elections?
• How might immigration enforcement controversies and developments in Venezuela affect Hispanic voter turnout, particularly among Venezuelan and Cuban communities? How might the loss of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitians impact South Florida politics?
• How could ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, including peace talks related to Gaza, influence vote decisions among Florida’s Jewish and Muslim communities?
• Will more immigration crackdowns negatively impact Florida’s large agricultural and service sectors and affect turnout and voting patterns of people tied to them?
• To what extent are there significant intra-party divisions on certain issues such as abortion among Democrats and gun policy among Republicans?

Trends in Campaigning

A central question heading into the midterms is whether campaigns can develop fresh ideas and implement new strategies to reach and mobilize an increasingly disengaged electorate. As traditional outreach methods have become less effective, campaigns may begin to experiment with new messaging styles, fundraising tactics, and voter contact strategies. The effectiveness of these approaches could influence the larger political landscape.

Key Questions

• Will campaigns shift away from negative advertising and use humor to attract and mobilize voters who may otherwise choose to stay home?
• Will campaigns rely more heavily on focus groups rather than small sample surveys to better understand voter attitudes and concerns?
• Will campaigns adopt the 250^th anniversary of the United States as a theme to engage and mobilize the electorate?
• Will candidates, parties, and other political organizations adopt more effective and less gimmick-driven fundraising tactics to appeal to both small and large donors?
• How much money are outside groups willing to spend in Florida during the 2026 midterms? For Democrats? For Republicans? For issues?
• Will campaigns invest more heavily in relational organizing strategies that rely on trusted messengers rather than traditional contact methods like text message urgency blasts?
• Will the legislative session help sharpen each party’s message on the campaign trail or not?

Media: Reliance, Trust, and AI

In an increasingly saturated media environment and amidst a disengaged electorate, reaching voters in the midterm elections is likely to be difficult and costly. At the same time, the growing use of artificial intelligence (AI) raises new concerns about misinformation and trust. Together, these dynamics may complicate efforts for campaigns across the state. Deepening generational differences in the complexity of informational sources they utilize makes microtargeting more essential than ever. (See Table 1.)

Table 1. Fragmented Media: Generational Differences in Preference

Note: Table created by Susan A. MacManus and Amy N. Benner; informed with data and analysis by Pew Research Center and Katie Harbath, “From Boomers to Gen Alpha: Five Generations, Five Internets.” Substack, October 22, 2025.

Key Questions

• Will campaigns adopt a multi-platform, generationally targeted approach to effectively engage and mobilize voters?
• To what extent will misinformation and disinformation shape the information environment during the midterms?
• How might the use of artificial intelligence (AI) shape voter opinions, engagement, mobilization, and turnout among Florida’s electorate?

The Big Unknowns

As with any election cycle, unforeseen events have the potential to reshape the broader political environment, potentially impacting voter priorities and participation. Several months out from Election Day, a range of factors could influence Florida’s midterm elections in a way that is difficult to anticipate.

Key Questions

• Will the Florida Legislature enact certain laws, policies, and procedures

that draw battle lines between voters and carry over into local, state, and federal races? (Could lines be drawn over taxes? education? environment? energy? health care? public safety? housing? local land use? or something else?)

• If mid-decade redistricting occurs, how might this reshape electoral competition and representation across the state?

• Will economic concerns, particularly affordability, remain the top issue for voters, or could national or international developments take precedence?
• Will major constitutional amendments appear on the ballot (e.g., legalize recreational marijuana or religious expression in schools), and how might these issues affect voter turnout?
• What election administration challenges or controversies could emerge during this election cycle?
• How might vote-by-mail debates, changes to election laws, or post-election litigation affect voter confidence and perceptions of election integrity?
• Will protests interfere with candidate campaigns? voting? ballot counting?
• Will physical violence or threats of violence be aimed at election officials? candidates? campaigners? voters?
• To what extent could unforeseen events, like hurricanes or other natural disasters, impact voter priorities and turnout?

National Attention ON Florida? YES, in 2026 AND BEYOND

Florida will be in the national spotlight in 2026, particularly among those whose attention is already on the 2028 presidential race—parties and potential candidates, PACs, politically engaged organizations, and interest groups.

• Which prominent Democrats with presidential ambitions will come to Florida in 2026? How often? Where will they go? Who will be their targeted audience? What will be their message?
• Among Republicans, who are Trump’s invitees to Mar-a-Lago? How often does he give accolades to Marco Rubio? J. D. Vance? Cabinet members? key members of Congress? Governors? big donors?

Florida’s unique mix within key demographic groups (generations; race and ethnic; gender) will permit in-depth post-election analyses of whether specific subgroups differed significantly in their turnout and voting patterns. This information will be shared with party officials and Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) groups already planning for 2028. The big question is:

• To what extent are there ideological or issue cracks within the subgroups? Will there be any shifts in party loyalty? How will future campaign microtargeting efforts be adjusted?

THE BOTTOM LINE

Florida will remain prominent in national political conversations because it tends to confront issues of broad importance more acutely than do other states with large populations precisely because of its continued growth. Sustained in-and-out migration continues to change the state’s demographic, cultural, political, and economic composition, often in ways that foreshadow broader national trends.