A Quick Look at Florida’s Registered Voters Ahead of the August 28 Primary

Dr. Susan A. MacManus

USF Distinguished University Professor Emerita

With the assistance of

David J. Bonanza, Research Associate

Amy N. Renner, Research Associate

            With the August 28 primary election right around the corner, it is instructive to look at the current make-up of Florida’s registered voters to better understand candidate outreach and voter mobilization strategies. In this brief, we report and contrast the racial, gender, and age composition of Democrat, Republican, and No Party Affiliation (NPA) registrants and their geographic concentrations in the state’s 10 media markets. The two parties are faced with the reality that an increasingly larger share of the electorate is choosing not to register with either one of them (Figure 1).

Both the Democrat and Republican parties have more competitive primaries than usual in 2018, reflecting the schisms within each. As of June 8, 11 congressional incumbents (4Rs, 7Ds), 6 state Senate incumbents (3Ds, 3Rs), and 22 state House incumbents (10 Ds, 12 Rs) face challengers within their own party. And for the first time in many years, with no incumbent in the race, both parties have highly competitive and contentious gubernatorial primaries.  

Both parties have their work cut out for them every step of the way from now until November 6. First, turnout in midterm primary elections has historically been quite low (Figure 2), making GOTV efforts difficult, especially during the summer and at a time when a growing proportion of the electorate is tuning out news.  Second, following the primary, the parties have little time to unify and mobilize their base and broaden their outreach to NPAs by Election Day. Significantly, two highly sought-after demographic groups make up a sizable share of NPA registrants—younger voters and Hispanics, including Puerto Ricans. 

Figure 1: More Floridians Choosing Not to Register as Democrats or Republicans

Source: Calculated from data available from the Florida Division of Elections.

Figure 2: Florida’s Late Primary Has Yielded Low Turnout Rates

Source: Calculated from data available from the Florida Division of Elections.

FLORIDA’S REGISTERED DEMOCRATS (37%)

            Florida’s registered Democrats are considerably more diverse than either Republicans or NPAs. Over half (52%) are persons of color, with blacks making up a considerably larger share than Hispanics (29% vs. 17%).  Women are 58% of the registrants, men 40%—a much larger gender gap than among either Republicans or NPAs. Age-wise, Democratic registrants are considerably younger than Republicans, but not as young as NPAs.  Geographically, two-thirds of all registered Democrats live in the Miami, Orlando, and Tampa media markets—the state’s most racially/ethnically diverse. (See Figures 3-7.)

            Key microtargeting challenges for Democratic candidates with Democratic opposition in the August primary are:

• How to mobilize sizable portions of the base that traditionally have low turnout rates for midterm election primaries—minorities and younger voters (the two are highly correlated).  Hispanic turnout has lagged behind black turnout. Will that change in August? Will the newly-arrived Puerto Ricans register as Democrats and turn out to vote to the degree that many candidates assume?

  Will the youth mobilization efforts over the next few months (the Parkland students’ bus tour—#MarchForOurLives) reverse the historically low primary turnout rates of young voters? The summer’s-end primary may mean that many young voters will not yet be back on college campuses long enough to be heavily engaged via peers. Another challenge is that traditional means of communicating with young voters are less effective than ever; they are not tied to the same political news sources as older voters.

• How to reach women voters. Research from the Clinton campaign has revealed significant generational differences among Democratic women as to the role of gender and gender-specific issues. For minority women (a majority of female Democrats), race may be a more important voting cue than gender alone.

Figure 3: Minorities are the Majority of Democratic Registrants

Source: Calculated by authors from Florida Voter Registration System data as of May 1, 2018.

Figure 4. Women Far Outnumber Men Among Democrat Registrants

Source: Calculated by authors from Florida Voter Registration System data as of May 1, 2018.

Figure 5. The Registration Gender Gap is Widest Among Democrats

Source: Calculated by authors from Florida Voter Registration System data as of May 1, 2018.

Figure 6. Younger Voters Make up Nearly Half of All Registered Democrats

Source: Calculated by authors from Florida Voter Registration System data as of May 1, 2018.

Figure 7. Florida Democrat Registrants Are Heavily Concentrated in

State’s 3 Largest Media Markets

Source: Calculated by authors from Florida Voter Registration System data as of May 1, 2018.

Florida’s Registered Republicans (35%)

Florida’s Republicans are far less racially/ethnically diverse (83% white) than either Democrat or NPA registrants. Hispanics make up a much larger share of the party’s minority registrants than blacks (11% vs. 1%). Republicans are also considerably older (63% are 50 or older) than either Democrat or NPA registrants. Women make up 50% of the GOP registrants, men 49%.  Geographically, Republicans are less concentrated than Democrats, although nearly half (46%) live in the famous I-4 Corridor—the Tampa and Orlando media markets. (See Figures 8-11.)

Key challenges for Republican candidates facing Republican opposition in the August primary are:

• How much to embrace President Trump. This calculation is likely to differ depending on whether one is running statewide, in a swing district, or in a safe district. Almost certain is that the proportion of the vote that Trump got in 2016 will be part of a candidate’s “embracement” decision.

• For those strongly running as pro-Trump candidates, how do you reach Trump voters who are “sometime” voters and have no history of voting in midterm elections? Will they be less interested when the focus is more on state and local issues in a non-presidential election year? Or will promoting a narrative that Trump is being treated unfairly by the media be enough to drive his 2016 supporters to the polls?

• Where to campaign and how.  For Republican candidates opposing each other in statewide races, do you focus more on rural and conservative parts of the state where turnout rates are higher? Or do you focus more on metropolitan area suburbs with higher concentrations of “moderate” Republicans that often are the swing vote, notably suburban female Republicans? What share of campaign resources (time and money) do you allocate to grassroots in-person campaigning vs. electronic media-based approaches knowing that midterm primary election turnout has historically been highest among older, more conservative party activists?

• How to generate the same level of enthusiasm for voting that is typically higher among “out-of-the-White House-party” registrants (Democrats this midterm). A recent Pew Research Center poll (June 5, 2018) reported that 77% of Republicans are exhausted by the news. They are more critical of it and have less enthusiasm for voting.

Figure 8. A High Percentage of Republican Registrants are White

Source: Calculated by authors from Florida Voter Registration System data as of May 1, 2018.

Figure 9. There is No Gender Gap Among Republican Registrants

Source: Calculated by authors from Florida Voter Registration System data as of May 1, 2018.

Figure 10. Almost Two-Thirds of Republican Registrants Are 50 or Older

Source: Calculated by authors from Florida Voter Registration System data as of May 1, 2018.

Figure 11. Republican Registrants Less Geographically Concentrated Than Democrats

Source: Calculated by authors from Florida Voter Registration System data as of May 1, 2018.

FLORIDA’S NO PARTY AFFILIATION (NPA) REGISTRANTS (27%)

Candidates from both major parties that expect to be in a competitive general election, whether running for a statewide or district-based position (congressional; legislative), are already thinking about how to reach registered NPAs—a large share of which are young, racially/ethnically diverse (more Hispanic—22% than black—8% or Asian—3%), with nearly equal shares of male and female registrants but a higher share of “unknown/other” gender registrants.  (See Figures 12-16.)

A majority of NPAs (58%) are under age 50.  The youngest generations have the highest incidence of NPA registrants (see Figure 15), consistent with other research showing that they are the least enamored of the traditional two-party system.  

NPAs are the most difficult voters to reach via traditional messaging and communication channels. They are “independent” for a variety of reasons, making it significantly more difficult to identify effective GOTV tactics. Traditionally, NPAs have had a lower turnout rate even in general elections, including the 2016 presidential election in Florida (64% compared with 81% for Republicans and 74% for Democrats).

Savvy primary candidates, aware that they will likely have to tap into this growing pool of registrants for at least some support if they secure their party’s nomination for a partisan competitive position, may temper their primary election rhetoric…IF possible!  Certainly, one of the biggest question marks heading into the 2018 general election is whether and how NPAs can be effectively mobilized by Democrat and Republican nominees alike. 

Figure 12. Hispanics are the Largest Share of NPA Minority Registrants

Source: Calculated by authors from Florida Voter Registration System data as of May 1, 2018.

Figure 13. There is No Gender Gap Among NPA Registrants

Source: Calculated by authors from Florida Voter Registration System data as of May 1, 2018.

Figure 14, Young Registrants Are a Larger Share of NPAs

Than of Democrats or Republicans

Source: Calculated by authors from Florida Voter Registration System data as of May 1, 2018.

Figure 15. Young Voters Are Increasingly Registering as NPAs

           Note: Generation birth years: #Generation (born after 1996); Millennials (1981-1996);

        Generation X (1965-1980); Baby Boomer (1946-1964); Silent (1928-1945); Greatest (before 1928).

Source: Calculated by authors from Florida Voter Registration System data as of May 1, 2018.

Figure 16. NPAs are Concentrated in Large Media Markets

(Larger Youth Populations)

Source: Calculated by authors from Florida Voter Registration System data as of May 1, 2018.

DEMOGRAPHIC AND TURNOUT ANALYSES KEY TO CAMPAIGN MICROTARGETING

            In an election where turnout is typically low (midterm primaries!), candidates with opposition within their own party must make critical decisions about how to best spend their time and money. Examining the demographic and turnout characteristics of party registrants is a key part of this calculation. We are in an era of micro-targeting. In the nation’s most competitive state, effective micro-targeting of messages and GOTV often makes the difference between victory and defeat.