Get free daily email updates
Search
Search Story Archive
 

Featured Columns

by Dr. Stephen R. MacNamara
November 12, 2008

Not many Florida Republican politicians woke up scared last Wednesday morning. Florida Democrats eked out a net gain of only one in the U.S. House of Representatives, no movement at all in the Florida Senate and barely a bump in the Florida House. But I bet one Florida Republican woke up scared…Mel Martinez. 2010, a mid-term election year for President Obama, will be a chance for the Dems to increase their numbers in the U. S. Senate and firm up the Obama base for the 2012 election; and while defeating an incumbent Republican governor may have some appeal, the focus will be on the Martinez seat.

Now this begs the question, “Is Mel even going to run for re-election?” He squeaked by Betty Castor by only 1.1% in 2004 (less than 83,000 votes while Bush won by over 380,000 votes, a 5% margin of victory. . . Hey! Better than Obama!). He had a less than spectacular run as Chairman of the National Republican Committee (didn’t make it a year), many members of his party are sideways with him on his immigration stands and he is even more vulnerable based on his association with, and support of, George W. Bush. And he hasn’t raised any money . . . in U.S. Senate re-election terms.

Of the larger states with U.S. Senate races in 2010 (Texas doesn’t have anyone up and Illinois will, but the Obama replacement candidate is yet unknown) the incumbents all have a robust amount of cash, except for Martinez. He has less than 1/10th of what he spent in 2004 on hand as of the last reporting cycle ($1,248,319). His large state brethren, on the other hand, have healthy reserves as of this writing. Charles Schumer (D-NY) $10.4 million, Arlen Specter (R-PA) $5.4 million, Barbara Boxer (D-CA) $3.6 million and George Voinovich (R-OH) $2.6 million. Republican Senators from much smaller neighboring states who are up for re-election in 2010 even top the Martinez total (Johnny Isakson [GA] $2.3 million and Richard Shelby [AL] a whopping $13.3 million). Money matters and raising at least $20 million in the next 24 months in this state during these times will be a monumental task that should have begun in earnest for a sitting Senator about 40 months ago or so.

So who are the contenders from the Republican side if he chooses to retire? Bill McCollum of course. Attorney General McCollum will not post up against Charlie Crist for Governor and McCollum finished second to Martinez in 2004, so we know he has aspirations for the seat. Congressman Connie Mack IV certainly and whomever emerges from the State Legislature as a leader, a reformer, and (in the case of our budget) a miracle worker. In the Senate, JD Alexander, Jeff Awater, Paula Dockery, Don Gaetz, Mike Haridopolos and Ken Pruitt all either have the money, the ambition, or both to launch a campaign if the planets are properly in line. In the House, incoming Speaker Ray Sansom could make a good case for himself if he finds success as a leader, or even the return to politics of popular former Speaker Allan Bense. Jeff Kottkamp? Jeb!? Nah! Once again, the real possibility of a crowded field with the top vote-getter moving on (Mel secured the nomination with less than 45% of the primary vote).

And the Democrats (regardless of whether or not Martinez seeks a second term)? Well “Katy Bar the Door” (for you youngsters it means “take precautions; there's trouble ahead”). Alex Sink is in if it looks like Crist holds on to his current popularity, although he certainly needs to think about firming up the Republican base which some insiders think he has abandoned. Congresspeople (coined that word just now, Obama may have it) Allen Boyd, Kathy Castor, Kendrick Meek and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz. State Representative Dan Gelber, State Senators Tony Hill and Chris Smith or even my Mayor John Marks might make a play if they think they can garner 25% in a packed field (without Alex Sink involved of course). Maybe also-rans Jim Davis or Bill McBride? How about Democratic National Convention speaker and Obama supporter Miami Mayor Manny Diaz to replace fellow Cuban-born Mel Martinez?

Now I know you are thinking “of course it is easy to make bold predictions when you name every elected official in the state”, but my point is that the race will be crowded if Mel runs for re-election and even more crowded if he doesn’t. With his lack of a real war chest, the playing field is almost level. Obama could raise $1,248,319 at a brunch for the Democratic nominee. So as for a “prediction”: If Martinez seeks re-election it will be Martinez vs. Diaz and if he chooses to retire (and I think he will so that’s my “prediction” inside a “prediction”) McCollum vs. Sink.

I’m so blue…

NEXT TIME: “Life in a Blue State –Part II”
« Back to Dr. Stephen R. MacNamara's columns