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Florida redistricting fallout: by the numbers by Politico Florida's Marc Caputo

BOTTOM LINE: DEMOCRATS WIN MORE. Under the existing lines of the proposed maps that the Florida Supreme Court will ultimately have to (and likely will) approve, President Obama would have won 13 of the state’s 27 congressional districts based on the 2012 election results. Obama carried only 11 of them in 2012 when he won Florida by just 0.9% (74,309 votes). The actual control of Florida’s current seats is even more lop-sided: Republicans edge Democrats 17-10 in seats held. 

 

TOUGH PREDICTION: The congressional map changes don’t instantly mean that Florida’s delegation will soon become 14-13 in the GOP’s narrow favor. For instance, socially liberal Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen keeps winning seats Democrats should be able to carry. There’s a strong possibility the delegation splits 16-11 in Republicans favor, or maybe 15-12 (if Democrats have an exceptional year). But who knows?

 

More from today's Politico Florida Playbook here.