Backroom Briefing: It's Miller Time? Not in the U.S. Senate race
By BRANDON LARRABEE
THE NEWS SERVICE OF FLORIDA
THE CAPITAL, TALLAHASSEE, July 30, 2015..........The potentially crowded Republican primary for an open U.S. Senate seat got less potentially crowded Thursday, as Congressman Jeff Miller bowed out of contention for the GOP nomination.
Miller, who represents the congressional district on the far western side of Florida's Panhandle, said he wanted to focus on trying to reform the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, which has been under fire for months. A bill pushed by Miller passed the House on Wednesday, but President Barack Obama has threatened to veto it.
"It became clear to me that this administration is not committed to reforming the VA," Miller said in a statement. "My personal commitment to the veterans of this country is greater than my desire to seek higher office. ... I have decided to forgo my candidacy for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and instead continue my efforts to reform the toxic culture within the VA."
But there might have also been some political calculations at play for Miller, first elected to Congress in 2001. In a recent Mason-Dixon poll, Miller came in fourth among Republicans --- behind Congressman David Jolly, Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera and Congressman Ron DeSantis. He dropped into fifth place when former state Attorney General Bill McCollum was added to the mix.
Also a daunting task: In May, Miller said it could take $12 million to $15 million to run in the GOP primary.
"I've never had to raise that kind of money in the 1st Congressional District," he said.
With the possible exception of McCollum, the GOP race to succeed U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio --- who's running for president --- appears to be set. In addition to Jolly, Lopez-Cantera and DeSantis, Orlando businessman Todd Wilcox is in the race.
As it always goes in politics, the very people who would have bashed Miller on a debate stage praised him as he left the campaign.
"I salute his efforts to reform the broken VA system that fails our vets, and if elected to the U.S. Senate I pledge to work side by side with Jeff to continue his outstanding work to meet the sacred commitment we make to every man and woman who serves in our military," Lopez-Cantera wrote in a post on Facebook.
Others might have been quietly grumbling. The Northwest Florida Daily News had reported that state Sen. Don Gaetz, R-Niceville, and state Sen. Greg Evers, R-Baker, were considering running for Miller's seat if the incumbent sought a promotion.
STRAW POLL THAT BROKE THE CAMEL'S BACK?
Four years ago, Florida Republicans were boasting that their party's occasional presidential straw poll was a bellwether of sorts, at least when it was held. In 1979, former California Gov. Ronald Reagan won the balloting, followed by the GOP nomination and the presidency. In 1987, Vice President George H.W. Bush did the same. And while he never actually got to the White House, Kansas Sen. Bob Dole won in 1995 and would go on to claim the party's nomination.
That all went by the boards when bombastic businessman Herman Cain won the Presidency 5 straw poll in 2011.
"The Herman Cain train is picking up steam," the former pizza magnate said in a video message following the win. Cain's locomotive did vault to the top of the GOP field, but was derailed months later when past allegations of sexual harassment cropped up.
This year, according to Sunshine State News, there will be no straw poll at an expected October GOP gathering.
It might not just be the potential embarrassment of another long shot --- think Donald Trump --- winning the vote and then flaming out en route to the nomination. The Republican Party of Florida has fought hard to avoid appearing to be in the corner of Rubio and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, the state's two native sons seeking the GOP nomination. For that matter, the party's also tried to dodge appearing to play favorites between the two.
At the same time, a loss for one or both of the Florida men among home-state activists could bring an avalanche of bad press and raise doubts among voters and donors.
For now, the party isn't making anything official. Asked about reports surrounding the potential October meeting, a party spokesman simply said the RPOF hasn't announced anything yet.
TWEET OF THE WEEK:
"Legislators better get to raising those dollars. Special session number 3."---Samantha Sexton (@SamanthaASexton), who works in government affairs with the PACE Center for Girls, on an announcement that the Legislature will hold a third special session this year, the newest to redraw state Senate districts. Lawmakers are not allowed to raise campaign cash during legislative sessions.
