Backroom Briefing: Can Trump follow Scott's lead?

By BRANDON LARRABEE AND JIM TURNER
THE NEWS SERVICE OF FLORIDA

THE CAPITAL, TALLAHASSEE, May 5, 2016..........As real-estate magnate Donald Trump nailed down the Republican presidential nomination Tuesday night with a resounding win in Indiana, Florida political consultants on both sides of the aisle felt a sense of deja vu.

"Tonight reminds me of Florida on August 25, 2010," tweeted Brian Hughes, a GOP operative who founded Meteoric Media Strategies and worked for Gov. Rick Scott's first bid for office in 2010.

Hughes was referring to the day after the Republican gubernatorial primary in 2010. Scott had upset then-Attorney General Bill McCollum in the GOP vote, and many observers believed the outsider businessman was headed for certain defeat against Democratic nominee Alex Sink in the general election.

Steve Schale, a Democratic consultant who advised Sink's campaign in 2010, sounded a similar note in an open letter to Democrats who might think the colorful Trump will be an easy out in November.

"In 2010, I heard from donors, activists and voters alike one simple message: 'Oh don't worry, there is no way Rick Scott can win,' " Schale wrote. "In fact, whenever I would publicly warn Democrats to not underestimate Scott, I'd get a text or email saying something like this: He can't win Steve, right? And I hear the same things now."

There are clear similarities between Scott and Trump. Both of them are businessmen without any real ties to the establishment of the Republican Party before they ran for office. Both have also seen their business credentials become fodder for opponents' attacks --- the Columbia/HCA hospital company had to pay a record fine for Medicare fraud after Scott stepped down as its chief executive, while some Trump businesses have declared bankruptcy.

And both surged to the front of the Republican pack after pounding home a hard-line message on immigration. For Scott, it was a call for Florida to approve a law aimed at cracking down on undocumented immigrants along the lines of a measure passed in 2010 in Arizona. Trump, of course, touted his plans to build a large wall on the Mexican border to crack down on illegal crossings and later called for a temporary ban on Muslims entering the country.

But there are also differences, some of them counterintuitive. For all of the attention paid to the #NeverTrump movement among conservatives on social media, a CNN-ORC International poll conducted April 28 to Sunday found Trump was viewed favorably by 74 percent of Republicans surveyed.

In a poll taken by Quinnipiac University during the weekend before the Florida primary in 2010, Scott was viewed favorably by 31 percent of Republicans and unfavorably by 40 percent --- though the poll also showed McCollum with a narrow lead.

What's not clear is whether Trump's cavernous gap in favorability ratings among all voters is better or worse than Scott. The earliest Quinnipiac poll to gauge Scott among all likely voters, taken in late September 2010, found him roughly even --- 41 percent favorable, 40 percent unfavorable. But that was a month after his primary victory. And those numbers would eventually slide again; in a poll in late October, Scott was back underwater by 11 points -- 39 percent favorable, 50 percent unfavorable.

But even those numbers are better than Trump's right now. In the CNN-ORC poll, Trump's unfavorables sat at 56 percent among registered voters nationally, a slightly different group than likely voters, with 41 percent viewing him favorably. An Associated Industries of Florida poll of likely Florida voters in April found Trump's unfavorable rating at a whopping 62 percent, with just a third of voters regarding the presumptive nominee favorably. (Again, Trump was far stronger among just Republicans.)

When it comes to Florida, Trump will also face what is likely to be a larger and more diverse electorate than the group of voters Scott faced --- a factor that would help Democrats. When President Barack Obama won the state in 2008 and 2012, voter turnout topped 70 percent both times. In Scott's two runs for governor in 2010 and 2014, turnout stood at 49 percent and 51 percent, respectively.

NELSON: TIME FOR BERNIE TO 'STAND DOWN'
 
U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, Florida's only statewide elected Democrat, said it's time for U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders to end his presidential campaign. And Nelson doesn't believe Trump, the Republicans' presumptive nominee, will be able to win the state or general election.
 
"Bernie has made his point, and it's time for the Democrats to unite, and Bernie ought to stand down," Nelson told reporters Thursday at the Tallahassee airport.
 
As for Trump, Nelson believes voters will eventually look beyond celebrity in making their final selection.
 
"When Americans look at choosing a president, they realize they're doing more than just an executive," Nelson said. "They're doing a leader of the free world and they're electing a person to be commander-in-chief of the greatest military force ever on the planet."
 
As for himself being a vice presidential pick for Hillary Clinton, or Scott becoming Trump's running mate, Nelson said such speculation is "premature."
 
But when the topic turned to a potential clash between the 73-year-old Nelson and 63-year-old Scott for the U.S. Senate in 2018, Nelson said he's "prepared."
 
"You might want to check the polls, not only the polls of head-to-head, but you might want to check the favorability rating of those of us who are privileged to hold public office in Florida," Nelson said.
 
TWEET OF THE WEEK: "Trust me, it's never too late to join @TheDemocrats. #StopTrump"---Former Republican Gov. Charlie Crist (@CharlieCrist), now a Democratic candidate for Congress, after Donald Trump wrapped up the GOP nomination for the presidency.