The Debates: A Florida Perspective

Dr. Susan A. MacManus

Distinguished University Professor

Dept. of Government & International Affairs

Debates have a history of making a difference in Florida.  In the 2010 election cycle with the highly competitive gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races, a Rasmussen poll of 1,000 likely U.S. voters found that 48% watched at least one candidate debate that season. The figure was 66% among those who said they were following the midterm elections very closely. And in the 2012 presidential primary, exit polls reported that two-thirds of Florida primary voters affirmed that the GOP presidential debates were an important factor in their vote. It is likely that November’s exit poll will show that the October debates had the same effect, especially since the third and final debate is in the Sunshine State. 

For many, the debates will simply affirm their support for a candidate. But for some other viewers, the debates may convince them to stay home.

Why More Interest in Debates?

Increasingly, voters are drawn to debates because they enable them to see and hear the candidates in their own words rather than in 30-second bites—whether in a TV ad or in a regular newscast.

Floridians have already been subjected to more than $120 million in TV ads (highest in the U.S.), with the highest levels of saturation in the Tampa and Orlando markets—the I-4 corridor.  At the same time, a recent Gallup Poll affirms that Americans’ distrust in the media has hit an all-time high, with 60% saying “they have little or no trust in the mass media to report the news fully, accurately, and fairly.”

What do voters look for, or listen for, in a presidential debate? 

Debate watchers judge candidates on a variety of dimensions including:

·      Their personal interactions with their opponent and the moderator—the degree to which they interrupt or demean their opponent and ignore the moderator’s instructions to complete an answer or respect time limits and other debate rules agreed upon before the debate begins.  

·      Whether they answer or evade tough questions.

·      The strength of their convictions on key issues.

·      How well they identify problems and offer real solutions.

·      The credibility or believability of their responses and statistics.

·      How clearly they contrast themselves with their opponent.

·      Their ability to inject enthusiasm into their potential supporters.

·      Their mannerisms and appearance (yes, they matter in a visual age!).

How do the candidates “spin” the viewers?

One popular debate guide (2000 Kids Voting) designed to teach young voters how to spot a candidate’s use of certain tactics to “spin” the voter his or her way identifies these well-known approaches:

Appeal to Emotion: Summons fear, anger or pity to secure listener support.

“If we don’t fight crime my way, your child won’t feel safe walking the streets.”

Bandwagon: Encourages the listener to do something because it’s the popular thing to do.

“More and more of us want new blood in Washington, and we’re voting for Jones.”

Card Stacking: Presents the evidence in a partial or slanted way.

“The average income is rising” - technically correct, but only the top 10% incomes are up.

False Cause: Insists that one event caused the other just because it came first.

“As soon as Jones was elected, savings banks began to fail.”

False Dilemma: Poses only two choices when there are a variety of possibilities.

“Choose Smith and you’ll get inflation; choose Jones and the budget will be balanced.”

Glittering Generalities: Says little specifically, but conveys emotion.

“John Jones has made this nation a better place.”

Hasty Generalization: Bases a conclusion on insufficient evidence.

“Dropping out of school must be a problem because I saw an article about it.”

Name Calling: Uses negative labels to stigmatize opponents.

“My opponent is a card-carrying liberal.”

Slippery Slope: Claims that an event will lead to an uncontrollable chain reaction.

“First they outlaw machine guns, and then they’ll take your hunting rifles.”

Testimonial: Convinces only through the endorsement of a respected personality.

“If he’s okay with General Colin Powell, then he’s okay with me.”

What are the 7 key issues likely to connect with a majority of Florida debate watchers?

            In Florida, with its partisan, racial and ethnic, age, and geographical (rural, urban, suburban) mix, the issues most likely to grab viewers’ attention are:

            The pace of job creation and economic recovery.  Floridians are dismayed at the state’s slow recovery from the Great Recession. Historically, Florida has led other states out of economic downturns, but now the state is lagging. Florida’s unemployment rate (8.8%) is still above the national average (8.1%), as is the foreclosure rate. And Florida’s median household income fell 2.9% in 2011 compared to 1.3% nationally.

            Taxes, spending, national debt. Florida has long had the reputation for being a fiscally conservative, anti-tax state, especially with regard to Tallahassee politics. Partisan differences on these issues at the national level have sharpened during this economic downturn, particularly with regard to income taxation and entitlement spending. The national debt and federal budget deficit are somewhat more powerful issues in Florida with its comparatively larger senior population (26% of current registered voters).       

            Immigration.  The state’s sizable Hispanic population (13.6% of current registrants) makes this issue more relevant here than in many other states.  But there are many cross-currents at work. Attention-grabbing topics will be candidate positions on educational opportunities for children of parents who came to Florida illegally (“Dream Act”), purging of noncitizens from voting rolls, the costs of providing social services, and even out-sourcing of jobs and trade policies that affect Florida industries (e.g., agriculture).

            Social and entitlement programs, especially health care and Medicare.  These issues have both cost and benefit dimensions. Many assume that health care (Obama Care) and Medicare are largely senior concerns in Florida, although both may be more important to anxiety-ridden retirement-age Baby Boomers. (The Boomers comprise 27% of Florida’s current registrants.) Partisan divides are deep on these issues and track closely with voters’ views of the role of the federal government in causing or resolving each policy challenge.  

            Education. Florida’s younger voters were the key to President Obama winning the state in 2008. To date, he has chosen to speak on college campuses each time he campaigns here.  While higher education is the focus of his campus speeches (college costs, loans), K-12 education is of greater interest to other age groups, particularly the 30-to-49 year olds (the largest age group among registrants) with school-age children.  Education at all levels is also a major concern of Florida’s business community which sees it as a vital part of the state’s economic recovery and future.  

            National security, military spending, support for the troops. Active duty and retired military make up a larger share of the electorate in Florida than in many other states.  Florida has the third-largest veteran population in the nation at 1.6 million. The state is home to a large number of military installations and defense contractors. Discussions of military preparedness, length and direction of the Afghanistan conflict, medical care and jobs for returning service members, and voting rights for the troops (absentee ballot access) will certainly garner the attention of Floridians watching the debates.  So will the security of embassy personnel located across the world, the recent flare-ups in the Middle East, Iran’s potential for nuclear arms, and the status of Israel.             

            Honesty and integrity of government leaders and of the election system itself. Florida voters are also quite concerned about the honesty and integrity of their potential leaders. Past polls by The Leadership Florida & The Nielsen Company have found that nearly half of the Floridians surveyed say what they want most in their leaders is integrity, followed by intelligence, communication skills, and consistency. The candidates’ remarks regarding protection of the integrity of the state’s election system will also be of great interest, particularly in light of the wide partisan divide on whether the greatest threat is voter suppression (keeping eligible people from voting) or fraud (preventing ineligible voters, including noncitizens, from voting). 

Key Question?

            Everything from now until Election Day is geared toward turning out a candidate’s supporters and reeling in the undecideds.  In light of the highly negative nature of the presidential campaign to date (85% of TV ads have been negative and at least partially untruthful), the key question is the degree to which the debates could tamp down turnout if the primary focus of the candidates is on attacking their opponent rather than detailing their own action plans. Currently polls show that voters are not completely sold on the ability of either candidate to resolve the country’s economic woes. And in a swing state like Florida, turnout is the key to victory.